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The Enrollment Projection Model

ENPRO uses K-12 district enrollment history and the current year enrollment to project enrollment by grade in future years. The enrollment history may be the October seat count, the End-of Year Adjusted Average Daily Membership, resident ADM or the enrollment history that the district provides. The user may choose between 17 methods of projecting enrollment using either the Weighted Cohort Survival Method or Numeric Survival Method.

ENPRO provides assistance to school districts for developing Kindergarten projection using the historical birth data for all counties and zip codes in the state of Minnesota.


Enrollment Projection Line Graph 2017

Enrollment History and Projection 2017 


Features of the Enrollment Projection Model

  • Develops enrollment projections for 5 or 10 years.
  • Uses the history of Fall Seat count, End of Year ADM, resident ADM or district determined enrollment history to develop enrollment projections.
  • Provides user with option to select from projection methodologies of cohort survival for individual years or averages, weighted cohort survival, numeric survival or weighted numeric survival.
  • Allows the user to select five enrollment projection methods and see the results in a dynamic graph to view comparison information on projections selected.  
  • Provides assistance to school districts for developing Kindergarten projections. The system includes historical birth data for all counties and zip codes in the state of Minnesota. The user than may choose to:
    • Hold Kindergarten constant
    • Use a 5 year linear progression of Kindergarten enrollment
    • Use a ratio of County births to Realized Kindergarten in the last 4 Years
    • Use the Lowest, Average, or Highest ratio of births in Prominent Zip Codes in last 4 years.
  • Presents information on which of the cohort and numerical enrollment projection methods would have provided the most accurate projection to the enrollment that was realized in the prior year.
  • Provides the user the ability to adjust either the history of enrollment or future enrollment for known factors, i.e., opening or closing of a charter school, additional grades being added at a nonpublic school.
  • Presents projection results in tables and graphs. A Ten-Year worksheet is available to examine the projections for ten years.
  • Presents the historical grade to grade changes, including the change resulting from the leaving grade 12 students and entering Kindergarten enrollment and the net migration by grade.
  • Presents a table and graph of selected enrollment by any grade groupings selected. The grade groupings can be altered as desired.
  • Develops individual School Enrollment projections using the current ratio of enrollment in each grade to the total enrollment and the total enrollment projected in future years.

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